![]() ![]() "We forecast high cathode supply in China to persist in the December quarter," said S&P Global Market Intelligence Senior Analyst Ruilin Wang. However, further price increases could be challenged by growing domestic supplies as China-based smelters returned from a period of heavy maintenance. The open import arbitrage as well as stronger-than-expected demand in August saw import premiums reaching a 2023 peak of $64/mt on Sept. 3 on slow demand and the arrival of pent-up EQ stocks from Tenke Fungurume, though much of it was tied to term contracts directly to consumers. High financing costs have moved smelters to buy more standard clean copper concs in Q3 that they can use directly in furnaces, as compared with complex concs that require blending and additional processes.įor copper cathodes, the outlook for import premiums remains subdued for Q4.Ĭhinese copper cathode import premiums first slid to a five-month low of $32/mt on Aug. The producer of Las Bambas copper, with a metal content around 35%, arranged more shipments through term contracts as a road blockade in Peru got lifted, according to a contractual buyer.Ĭopper content increased for several major concs brands such as Escondida and Los Pelembras for this year, leading to smelters receiving higher-than-usual copper content concs.Īt the same time, a major supplier of low copper content concs, Los Bronces, was struggling to deliver to contractual buyers due to high moisture levels. Some smelters also restocked in the China domestic market due to lower costs.Ĭoncs with copper content below 30%, low gold content and low impurity copper concs have better spot liquidity, as the copper content has increased in general since the second quarter. Quality has become the main driver in the spot concs market amid surplus supply and high financing costs in Q3.Īs spot TC/RCs traded at above the 2023 benchmark level of $88/mt in Q3, sellers increasingly chose to exercise their option to deliver term contracts. The S&P Global Commodity Insights daily clean copper concentrate treatment charge reached a one-year high of $95.10/mt CIF China July 31, up 25% from March 9, but moved at the lowest pace in Q3 amid limited spot interest. Teck is expected to produce 80,000 mt to 100,000 mt clean concs in 2023. ![]() Teck Resources has arranged the first shipment of Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 concs in September to a China-based smelter. Some ex-China smelters in Japan and Brazil were facing high inventory levels and production issues that drove them to resell their clean concs supply to China. The increasing supply of complex copper concs instead of clean materials, such as Chile's Collahuasi, Peru's Toromocho and Serbia's Timok, was widening the spread between standard clean and complex copper concs TC/RCs and is expected to add further pressure on clean concs TC/RCs. On the supply side, clean concentrate shipments from the Los Bronces mine were delayed due to high moisture content. The improving performance of sulfuric acid markets and an open copper import arbitrage window would also motivate smelters to keep copper production rates high, a smelter source said. The full impact of these expansions, however, would unlikely be seen in Q4 as smelters need time to ramp up to optimum capacity levels, market sources said. There is also market talk that Nanfang Nonferrous has started its phase two production in September having 400,000 mt capacity. Baiyin Nonferrous and ZTS Nonferrous fired up their second-phase lines, adding 380,000 mt capacity to the market. Spot copper treatment and refining charges look to be pressured in the fourth quarter on increasing demand for the metal from winter restocking and as new Chinese smelter capacity comes online, after slow trading activity through the third quarter due to high inventory levels.Ĭhina's smelter expansions and improved smelter profit margins have fueled discussions, with the market seeing more inquiries as offers lowered.ĭaye Nonferrous plans to restart its first-phase production line of 300,000 mt capacity in October. Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience. ![]()
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